Network diffusion

Modified

May 10, 2024

This chapter is based on the 2018 and 2019 tutorials of netdiffuseR at the Sunbelt conference. The source code of the tutorials, taught by Thomas W. Valente and George G. Vega Yon (author of this book), is available here.

Network diffusion of innovation

Diffusion networks

  • Explains how new ideas and practices (innovations) spread within and between communities.

  • While a lot of factors have been shown to influence diffusion (Spatial, Economic, Cultural, Biological, etc.), Social Networks are prominent.

  • There are many components in the diffusion network model, including network exposures, thresholds, infectiousness, susceptibility, hazard rates, diffusion rates (bass model), clustering (Moran’s I), and so on.

Thresholds

  • One of the canonical concepts is the network threshold. Network thresholds (Valente, 1995; 1996), \(\tau\), are defined as the required proportion or number of neighbors that lead you to adopt a particular behavior (innovation), \(a=1\). In (very) general terms

    \[ a_i = \left\{\begin{array}{ll} 1 &\text{if } \tau_i\leq E_i \\ 0 & \text{Otherwise} \end{array}\right. \qquad E_i \equiv \frac{\sum_{j\neq i}\mathbf{X}_{ij}a_j}{\sum_{j\neq i}\mathbf{X}_{ij}} \]

    Where \(E_i\) is i’s exposure to the innovation and \(\mathbf{X}\) is the adjacency matrix (the network).

  • This can be generalized and extended to include covariates and other network weighting schemes (that’s what netdiffuseR is all about).

The netdiffuseR R package

Overview

netdiffuseR is an R package that:

  • It is designed to Visualize, Analyze, and simulate network diffusion data (in general).

  • Depends on some pretty popular packages:

    • RcppArmadillo: So it’s fast,
    • Matrix: So it’s big,
    • statnet and igraph: So it’s not from scratch

  • Can handle big graphs, e.g., an adjacency matrix with more than 4 billion elements (PR for RcppArmadillo)

  • Already on CRAN with ~6,000 downloads since its first version, Feb 2016,

  • A lot of features to make it easy to read network (dynamic) data, making it a companion of other net packages.

Datasets

  • netdiffuseR has the three classic Diffusion Network Datasets:

    • medInnovationsDiffNet Doctors and the innovation of Tetracycline (1955).
    • brfarmersDiffNet Brazilian farmers and the innovation of Hybrid Corn Seed (1966).
    • kfamilyDiffNet Korean women and Family Planning methods (1973).
    brfarmersDiffNet
    Dynamic network of class -diffnet-
 Name               : Brazilian Farmers
 Behavior           : Adoption of Hybrid Corn Seeds
 # of nodes         : 692 (1001, 1002, 1004, 1005, 1007, 1009, 1010, 1020, ...)
 # of time periods  : 21 (1946 - 1966)
 Type               : directed
 Final prevalence   : 1.00
 Static attributes  : village, idold, age, liveout, visits, contact, coo... (146)
 Dynamic attributes : -
    medInnovationsDiffNet
    Dynamic network of class -diffnet-
 Name               : Medical Innovation
 Behavior           : Adoption of Tetracycline
 # of nodes         : 125 (1001, 1002, 1003, 1004, 1005, 1006, 1007, 1008, ...)
 # of time periods  : 18 (1 - 18)
 Type               : directed
 Final prevalence   : 1.00
 Static attributes  : city, detail, meet, coll, attend, proage, length, ... (58)
 Dynamic attributes : -
    kfamilyDiffNet
    Dynamic network of class -diffnet-
 Name               : Korean Family Planning
 Behavior           : Family Planning Methods
 # of nodes         : 1047 (10002, 10003, 10005, 10007, 10010, 10011, 10012, 10014, ...)
 # of time periods  : 11 (1 - 11)
 Type               : directed
 Final prevalence   : 1.00
 Static attributes  : village, recno1, studno1, area1, id1, nmage1, nmag... (430)
 Dynamic attributes : -

Visualization methods

set.seed(12315)
x <- rdiffnet(
  400, t = 6, rgraph.args = list(k=6, p=.3),
  seed.graph = "small-world",
  seed.nodes = "central", rewire = FALSE, threshold.dist = 1/4
  )
plot(x)

plot_diffnet(x)

plot_diffnet2(x)

plot_adopters(x)

plot_threshold(x)

plot_infectsuscep(x, K=2)
Warning in plot_infectsuscep.list(graph$graph, graph$toa, t0, normalize, : When
applying logscale some observations are missing.

plot_hazard(x)

Problems

  1. Using the diffnet object in intro.rda, use the function plot_threshold specifying shapes and colors according to the variables ItrustMyFriends and Age. Do you see any pattern?

Simulation of diffusion processes

Before we start, a review of the concepts we will be using here

  1. Exposure: Proportion/number of neighbors that have adopted an innovation at each point in time.
  2. Threshold: The proportion/number of your neighbors who had adopted at or one time period before ego (the focal individual) adopted.
  3. Infectiousness: How much \(i\)’s adoption affects her alters.
  4. Susceptibility: How much \(i\)’s alters’ adoption affects her.
  5. Structural equivalence: How similar is \(i\) to \(j\) in terms of position in the network.

Simulating diffusion networks

We will simulate a diffusion network with the following parameters:

  1. Will have 1,000 vertices,
  2. Will span 20 time periods,
  3. The initial adopters (seeds) will be selected at random,
  4. Seeds will be a 10% of the network,
  5. The graph (network) will be small-world,
  6. Will use the WS algorithm with \(p=.2\) (probability of rewiring).
  7. Threshold levels will be uniformly distributed between [0.3, 0.7]

To generate this diffusion network, we can use the rdiffnet function included in the package:

# Setting the seed for the RNG
set.seed(1213)

# Generating a random diffusion network
net <- rdiffnet(
  n              = 1e3,                         # 1.
  t              = 20,                          # 2.
  seed.nodes     = "random",                    # 3.
  seed.p.adopt   = .1,                          # 4.
  seed.graph     = "small-world",               # 5.
  rgraph.args    = list(p=.2),                  # 6.
  threshold.dist = function(x) runif(1, .3, .7) # 7.
  )
Warning in (function (graph, p, algorithm = "endpoints", both.ends = FALSE, :
The option -copy.first- is set to TRUE. In this case, the first graph will be
treated as a baseline, and thus, networks after T=1 will be replaced with T-1.

  • The function rdiffnet generates random diffusion networks. Main features:

    1. Simulating random graph or using your own,

    2. Setting threshold levels per node,

    3. Network rewiring throughout the simulation, and

    4. Setting the seed nodes.

  • The simulation algorithm is as follows:

    1. If required, a baseline graph is created,

    2. Set of initial adopters and threshold distribution are established,

    3. The set of t networks is created (if required), and

    4. Simulation starts at t=2, assigning adopters based on exposures and thresholds:

    1. For each \(i \in N\), if its exposure at \(t-1\) is greater than its threshold, then adopts, otherwise, continue without change.

    2. next \(i\)

Rumor spreading

library(netdiffuseR)

set.seed(09)
diffnet_rumor <- rdiffnet(
  n = 5e2,
  t = 5, 
  seed.graph = "small-world",
  rgraph.args = list(k = 4, p = .3),
  seed.nodes = "random",
  seed.p.adopt = .05,
  rewire = TRUE,
  threshold.dist = function(i) 1L,
  exposure.args = list(normalized = FALSE)
  )
Warning in (function (graph, p, algorithm = "endpoints", both.ends = FALSE, :
The option -copy.first- is set to TRUE. In this case, the first graph will be
treated as a baseline, and thus, networks after T=1 will be replaced with T-1.
summary(diffnet_rumor)
Diffusion network summary statistics
Name     : A diffusion network
Behavior : Random contagion
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Period   Adopters   Cum Adopt. (%)   Hazard Rate   Density   Moran's I (sd)  
-------- ---------- ---------------- ------------- --------- ---------------- 
       1         25        25 (0.05)             -      0.01 -0.00 (0.00)     
       2         78       103 (0.21)          0.16      0.01  0.01 (0.00) *** 
       3        187       290 (0.58)          0.47      0.01  0.01 (0.00) *** 
       4        183       473 (0.95)          0.87      0.01  0.01 (0.00) *** 
       5         27       500 (1.00)          1.00      0.01               -  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Left censoring  : 0.05 (25)
 Right centoring : 0.00 (0)
 # of nodes      : 500

 Moran's I was computed on contemporaneous autocorrelation using 1/geodesic
 values. Significane levels  *** <= .01, ** <= .05, * <= .1.
plot_diffnet(diffnet_rumor, slices = c(1, 3, 5))

# We want to use igraph to compute layout
igdf <- diffnet_to_igraph(diffnet_rumor, slices=c(1,2))[[1]]
pos <- igraph::layout_with_drl(igdf)

plot_diffnet2(diffnet_rumor, vertex.size = dgr(diffnet_rumor)[,1], layout=pos)

Difussion

set.seed(09)
diffnet_complex <- rdiffnet(
  seed.graph = diffnet_rumor$graph,
  seed.nodes = which(diffnet_rumor$toa == 1),
  rewire = FALSE,
  threshold.dist = function(i) rbeta(1, 3, 10),
  name = "Diffusion",
  behavior = "Some social behavior"
)
plot_adopters(diffnet_rumor, what = "cumadopt", include.legend = FALSE)
plot_adopters(diffnet_complex, bg="tomato", add=TRUE, what = "cumadopt")
legend("topleft", legend = c("Disease", "Complex"), col = c("lightblue", "tomato"),
       bty = "n", pch=19)

Mentor Matching

# Finding mentors
mentors <- mentor_matching(diffnet_rumor, 25, lead.ties.method = "random")

# Simulating diffusion with these mentors
set.seed(09)
diffnet_mentored <- rdiffnet(
  seed.graph = diffnet_complex,
  seed.nodes = which(mentors$`1`$isleader),
  rewire = FALSE,
  threshold.dist = diffnet_complex[["real_threshold"]],
  name = "Diffusion using Mentors"
)

summary(diffnet_mentored)
Diffusion network summary statistics
Name     : Diffusion using Mentors
Behavior : Random contagion
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Period   Adopters   Cum Adopt. (%)   Hazard Rate   Density   Moran's I (sd)  
-------- ---------- ---------------- ------------- --------- ---------------- 
       1         25        25 (0.05)             -      0.01 -0.00 (0.00)     
       2         92       117 (0.23)          0.19      0.01  0.01 (0.00) *** 
       3        152       269 (0.54)          0.40      0.01  0.01 (0.00) *** 
       4        150       419 (0.84)          0.65      0.01  0.01 (0.00) *** 
       5         73       492 (0.98)          0.90      0.01 -0.00 (0.00) **  
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Left censoring  : 0.05 (25)
 Right centoring : 0.02 (8)
 # of nodes      : 500

 Moran's I was computed on contemporaneous autocorrelation using 1/geodesic
 values. Significane levels  *** <= .01, ** <= .05, * <= .1.
cumulative_adopt_count(diffnet_complex)
         1     2        3           4           5
num  25.00 80.00 183.0000 338.0000000 470.0000000
prop  0.05  0.16   0.3660   0.6760000   0.9400000
rate  0.00  2.20   1.2875   0.8469945   0.3905325
cumulative_adopt_count(diffnet_mentored)
         1       2          3           4           5
num  25.00 117.000 269.000000 419.0000000 492.0000000
prop  0.05   0.234   0.538000   0.8380000   0.9840000
rate  0.00   3.680   1.299145   0.5576208   0.1742243

Example by changing threshold


# Simulating a scale-free homophilic network
set.seed(1231)
X <- rep(c(1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0), 50)
net <- rgraph_ba(t = 499, m=4, eta = X)

# Taking a look in igraph
ig  <- igraph::graph_from_adjacency_matrix(net)
plot(ig, vertex.color = c("azure", "tomato")[X+1], vertex.label = NA,
     vertex.size = sqrt(dgr(net)))


# Now, simulating a bunch of diffusion processes
nsim <- 500L
ans_1and2 <- vector("list", nsim)
set.seed(223)
for (i in 1:nsim) {
  # We just want the cum adopt count
  ans_1and2[[i]] <- 
    cumulative_adopt_count(
      rdiffnet(
        seed.graph = net,
        t = 10,
        threshold.dist = sample(1:2, 500L, TRUE),
        seed.nodes = "random",
        seed.p.adopt = .10,
        exposure.args = list(outgoing = FALSE, normalized = FALSE),
        rewire = FALSE
        )
      )
  
  # Are we there yet?
  if (!(i %% 50))
    message("Simulation ", i," of ", nsim, " done.")
}
## Simulation 50 of 500 done.
## Simulation 100 of 500 done.
## Simulation 150 of 500 done.
## Simulation 200 of 500 done.
## Simulation 250 of 500 done.
## Simulation 300 of 500 done.
## Simulation 350 of 500 done.
## Simulation 400 of 500 done.
## Simulation 450 of 500 done.
## Simulation 500 of 500 done.

# Extracting prop
ans_1and2 <- do.call(rbind, lapply(ans_1and2, "[", i="prop", j=))

ans_2and3 <- vector("list", nsim)
set.seed(223)
for (i in 1:nsim) {
  # We just want the cum adopt count
  ans_2and3[[i]] <- 
    cumulative_adopt_count(
      rdiffnet(
        seed.graph = net,
        t = 10,
        threshold.dist = sample(2:3, 500L, TRUE),
        seed.nodes = "random",
        seed.p.adopt = .10,
        exposure.args = list(outgoing = FALSE, normalized = FALSE),
        rewire = FALSE
        )
      )
  
  # Are we there yet?
  if (!(i %% 50))
    message("Simulation ", i," of ", nsim, " done.")
}
## Simulation 50 of 500 done.
## Simulation 100 of 500 done.
## Simulation 150 of 500 done.
## Simulation 200 of 500 done.
## Simulation 250 of 500 done.
## Simulation 300 of 500 done.
## Simulation 350 of 500 done.
## Simulation 400 of 500 done.
## Simulation 450 of 500 done.
## Simulation 500 of 500 done.

ans_2and3 <- do.call(rbind, lapply(ans_2and3, "[", i="prop", j=))

We can simplify by using the function rdiffnet_multiple. The following lines of code accomplish the same as the previous code avoiding the for-loop (from the user’s perspective). Besides of the usual parameters passed to rdiffnet, the rdiffnet_multiple function requires R (number of repetitions/simulations), and statistic (a function that returns the statistic of interest). Optionally, the user may choose to specify the number of clusters to run it in parallel (multiple CPUs):

ans_1and3 <- rdiffnet_multiple(
  # Num of sim
  R              = nsim,
  # Statistic
  statistic      = function(d) cumulative_adopt_count(d)["prop",], 
  seed.graph     = net,
  t              = 10,
  threshold.dist = sample(1:3, 500, TRUE),
  seed.nodes     = "random",
  seed.p.adopt   = .1,
  rewire         = FALSE,
  exposure.args  = list(outgoing=FALSE, normalized=FALSE),
  # Running on 4 cores
  ncpus          = 4L
  )
boxplot(ans_1and2, col="ivory", xlab = "Time", ylab = "Threshold")
boxplot(ans_2and3, col="tomato", add=TRUE)
boxplot(t(ans_1and3), col = "steelblue", add=TRUE)
legend(
  "topleft",
  fill = c("ivory", "tomato", "steelblue"),
  legend = c("1/2", "2/3", "1/3"),
  title = "Threshold range",
  bty ="n"
)

Problems

  1. Given the following types of networks: Small-world, Scale-free, Bernoulli, what set of \(n\) initiators maximizes diffusion?

Statistical inference

Moran’s I

  • Moran’s I tests for spatial autocorrelation.

  • netdiffuseR implements the test in moran, which is suited for sparse matrices.

  • We can use Moran’s I as a first look to whether there is something happening: let that be influence or homophily.

Using geodesics

  • One approach is to use the geodesic (shortest path length) matrix to account for indirect influence.

  • netdiffuseR has a function to do so, the approx_geodesic function, which, using graph powers, computes the shortest path up to n steps. This could be faster (if you only care up to n steps) than igraph or sns:

    # Extracting the large adjacency matrix (stacked)
dgc <- diag_expand(medInnovationsDiffNet$graph)
ig  <- igraph::graph_from_adjacency_matrix(dgc)
mat <- network::as.network(as.matrix(dgc))

# Measuring times
times <- microbenchmark::microbenchmark(
  netdiffuseR = netdiffuseR::approx_geodesic(dgc),
  igraph = igraph::distances(ig),
  sna = sna::geodist(mat),
  times = 50, unit="ms"
)

  • The summary.diffnet method already runs Moran’s for you. What happens under the hood is:

    # For each time point we compute the geodesic distances matrix
W <- approx_geodesic(medInnovationsDiffNet$graph[[1]])

# We get the element-wise inverse
W@x <- 1/W@x

# And then compute moran
moran(medInnovationsDiffNet$cumadopt[,1], W)
    $observed
[1] 0.06624028

$expected
[1] -0.008064516

$sd
[1] 0.03265066

$p.value
[1] 0.02286087

attr(,"class")
[1] "diffnet_moran"

Structural dependence and permutation tests

  • A novel statistical method (work-in-progress) for testing network influence effects.
  • Included in the package, tests whether a particular network statistic depends on network structure
  • Suitable to be applied to network thresholds (you can’t use thresholds in regression-like models!)

Idea

  • Let \(\mathcal{G} = (V,E)\) be a graph, \(\gamma\) a vertex attribute, and \(\beta = f(\gamma,\mathcal{G})\), then

    \[\gamma \perp \mathcal{G} \implies \mathbb{E}\left[\beta(\gamma,\mathcal{G})|\mathcal{G}\right] = \mathbb{E}\left[\beta(\gamma,\mathcal{G})\right]\]

  • For example, if time of adoption is independent of the structure of the network, then the average threshold level will be independent from the network structure as well.

  • Another way of looking at this is that the test will allow us to see how probable it is to have this combination of network structure and network threshold (if it is uncommon, then we say that the diffusion model is highly likely)

Example Not random TOA

  • To use this test, netdiffuseR has the struct_test function.

  • It simulates networks with the same density, and computes a particular statistic every time, generating an EDF (Empirical Distribution Function) under the Null hypothesis (p-values).

    # Simulating network
set.seed(1123)
net <- rdiffnet(n=500, t=10, seed.graph = "small-world")
    Warning in (function (graph, p, algorithm = "endpoints", both.ends = FALSE, :
The option -copy.first- is set to TRUE. In this case, the first graph will be
treated as a baseline, and thus, networks after T=1 will be replaced with T-1.
    # Running the test
test <- struct_test(
  graph     = net, 
  statistic = function(x) mean(threshold(x), na.rm = TRUE),
  R         = 1e3,
  ncpus=4, parallel="multicore"
  )
    Warning in (function (graph, p, algorithm = "endpoints", both.ends = FALSE, :
The option -copy.first- is set to TRUE. In this case, the first graph will be
treated as a baseline, and thus, networks after T=1 will be replaced with T-1.
    # See the output
test
    
Structure dependence test
# Simulations     : 1,000
# nodes           : 500
# of time periods : 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 H0: E[beta(Y,G)|G] - E[beta(Y,G)] = 0 (no structure dependency)
    observed    expected       p.val
      0.5513      0.2510      0.0000

  • Now we shuffle times of adoption, so that is random

    # Resetting TOAs (now will be completely random)
diffnet.toa(net) <- sample(diffnet.toa(net), nnodes(net), TRUE)

# Running the test
test <- struct_test(
  graph     = net, 
  statistic = function(x) mean(threshold(x), na.rm = TRUE),
  R         = 1e3,
  ncpus=4, parallel="multicore"
  )
    Warning in (function (graph, p, algorithm = "endpoints", both.ends = FALSE, :
The option -copy.first- is set to TRUE. In this case, the first graph will be
treated as a baseline, and thus, networks after T=1 will be replaced with T-1.
    # See the output
test
    
Structure dependence test
# Simulations     : 1,000
# nodes           : 500
# of time periods : 10
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 H0: E[beta(Y,G)|G] - E[beta(Y,G)] = 0 (no structure dependency)
    observed    expected       p.val
      0.2714      0.2582      0.3700

Regression analysis

  • In regression analysis, we want to see if exposure, once we control for other covariates, had any effect on adopting a behavior.

  • The big problem is when we have a latent variable that co-determines both network and behavior.

  • Regression analysis will be generically biased Unless we can control for that variable.

  • On the other hand, if you can claim that either such variable doesn’t exist or you actually can control for it, then we have two options: lagged exposure models or contemporaneous exposure models. We will focus on the former.

Lagged exposure models

  • In this type of model, we usually have the following

    \[ y_t = f(W_{t-1}, y_{t-1}, X_i) + \varepsilon \]

    Furthermore, in the case of adoption, we have

    \[ y_{it} = \left\{ \begin{array}{ll} 1 & \text{if}\quad \rho\sum_{j\neq i}\frac{W_{ijt-1}y_{it-1}}{\sum_{j\neq i}W_{ijt-1}} + X_{it}\beta > 0\\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{array} \right. \]

  • In netdiffuseR, it is as easy as doing the following:

    # fakedata
set.seed(121)

W   <- rgraph_ws(1e3, 8, .2)
X   <- cbind(var1 = rnorm(1e3))
toa <- sample(c(NA,1:5), 1e3, TRUE)

dn  <- new_diffnet(W, toa=toa, vertex.static.attrs = X)
    Warning in new_diffnet(W, toa = toa, vertex.static.attrs = X): -graph- is
static and will be recycled (see ?new_diffnet).
    # Computing exposure and adoption for regression
dn[["cohesive_expo"]] <- cbind(NA, exposure(dn)[,-nslices(dn)])
dn[["adopt"]]         <- dn$cumadopt

# Generating the data and running the model
dat <- as.data.frame(dn)
ans <- glm(adopt ~ cohesive_expo + var1 + factor(per),
            data = dat,
            family = binomial(link="probit"),
            subset = is.na(toa) | (per <= toa))
summary(ans)
    
Call:
glm(formula = adopt ~ cohesive_expo + var1 + factor(per), family = binomial(link = "probit"), 
    data = dat, subset = is.na(toa) | (per <= toa))

Coefficients:
              Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)   -0.92777    0.05840 -15.888  < 2e-16 ***
cohesive_expo  0.23839    0.17514   1.361 0.173452    
var1          -0.04623    0.02704  -1.710 0.087334 .  
factor(per)3   0.29313    0.07715   3.799 0.000145 ***
factor(per)4   0.33902    0.09897   3.425 0.000614 ***
factor(per)5   0.59851    0.12193   4.909 9.18e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 2745.1  on 2317  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 2663.5  on 2312  degrees of freedom
  (1000 observations deleted due to missingness)
AIC: 2675.5

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4

    Alternatively, we could have used the new function diffreg

    ans <- diffreg(dn ~ exposure + var1 + factor(per), type = "probit")
summary(ans)
    
Call:
glm(formula = Adopt ~ exposure + var1 + factor(per), family = binomial(link = "probit"), 
    data = dat, subset = ifelse(is.na(toa), TRUE, toa >= per))

Coefficients:
             Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(>|z|)    
(Intercept)  -0.92777    0.05840 -15.888  < 2e-16 ***
exposure      0.23839    0.17514   1.361 0.173452    
var1         -0.04623    0.02704  -1.710 0.087334 .  
factor(per)3  0.29313    0.07715   3.799 0.000145 ***
factor(per)4  0.33902    0.09897   3.425 0.000614 ***
factor(per)5  0.59851    0.12193   4.909 9.18e-07 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

(Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1)

    Null deviance: 2745.1  on 2317  degrees of freedom
Residual deviance: 2663.5  on 2312  degrees of freedom
  (1000 observations deleted due to missingness)
AIC: 2675.5

Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 4

Contemporaneous exposure models

  • Similar to the lagged exposure models, we usually have the following

    \[ y_t = f(W_t, y_t, X_t) + \varepsilon \]

    Furthermore, in the case of adoption, we have

    \[ y_{it} = \left\{ \begin{array}{ll} 1 & \text{if}\quad \rho\sum_{j\neq i}\frac{W_{ijt}y_{it}}{\sum_{j\neq i}W_{ijt}} + X_{it}\beta > 0\\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{array} \right. \]

  • Unfortunately, since \(y_t\) is in both sides of the equation, these models cannot be fitted using a standard probit or logit regression.

  • Two alternatives to solve this:

    1. Using Instrumental Variables Probit (ivprobit in both R and Stata)

    2. Use a Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) Probit (SpatialProbit and ProbitSpatial in R).

  • We won’t cover these here.

Problems

Using the dataset stats.rda:

  1. Compute Moran’s I as the function summary.diffnet does. To do so, you’ll need to use the function toa_mat (which calculates the cumulative adoption matrix), and approx_geodesic (which computes the geodesic matrix). (see ?summary.diffnet for more details).

  2. Read the data as diffnet object, and fit the following logit model \(adopt = Exposure*\gamma + Measure*\beta + \varepsilon\). What happens if you exclude the time-fixed effects?